What will it take to bring computer simulation to the Layman? Taking VOOM (Visually Oriented Object Modeling) to the next level with an Open Source Effort

Rex Briggs

Marketing Evolution

TITLE: What Will It Take to Bring Computer Simulation To the Layman? Taking VOOM(Visually Oriented Object Modeling) to the next level with an Open Source effort

ABSTRACT: We are currently living in the era of the number cruncher. Modeling of complex systems to predict outcomes have captured the minds and hearts of business leaders, and people in general. Scan some of the bestselling books: Money Ball popularized the application of statistics to managing a baseball team, Super Crunchers lionize those profiting from analysis of huge stores of data. Freakonomics captures the imagination and show that just about anything can be analyzed, if you approach the question with a creative mind, lots of data and good analytic models. Numerati describe a rising class of those that wield models. And, my 2006 book, What Sticks, describes how intuition and trial and error are being replaced with design of experiments and statistical models. But having been deeply involved in the development of data model for some of the best companies in the world, it is clear that the layman is falling further behind – and that’s a problem. For all our progress, there are missing pieces.

One area that is lacking is the ability to share cause and effect relationships in a complex system in such a way that is accessible to the layperson. As Ostrom (Ostrom, 1988) first suggested, computer simulation might be an alternative to verbal arguments and mathematic equations. After all, verbal arguments can take volumes to develop, and leave the reader unable to test the implication of different “what-ifs”. Mathematics models can be great for representing complex cause and effect relationships – if you are a mathematician, but otherwise, the form commonly published in academic journals are too difficult for all but a small class of numerati to track.

I believe the conditions are ripe for the evolution of language to embrace computer based simulation to communicate trade-offs, test what-ifs, to understand likely outcomes and accesses possible risks. The computer power, in the form of smartphones, such as Apple’s iPhone, put the computing power at the fingertips to easily access, share and discuss. The notion of collaboration through Wiki and the like is growing. And, there are lots of challenges that would benefit from shared simulations to dig deeper to see the how outcomes change based on different points of view regarding underlying assumptions. The flipside is also true – there are arguments about assumptions that matter not (simulations can show that in any event, the outcome is similar enough that intelligent people would take similar actions).

VOOM (Visually Oriented Object Modeling) is an early attempt to create a mark-up language that makes it easy for the layperson to read and interact. In essence, it is an attempt to provide a visual vocabulary – the interface… a lingua franca to make the leap to mass adoption. This summer, VOOM will transition from a proprietary effort of my firm to an open source public good. Will breakthroughs in visualization and easy to use interfaces come from groups like Swarm? I think they might. The paper I propose to present shares the work in VOOM (Visually Oriented Object Modeling), and opens a dialogue about evolution of language, the progress made in making Agent Based Models and other mathematically driven computer simulation accessible to the layman, and the priority it should be given.

Back to Swarmfest2010_program