The Spread of Black Death in London (New Mexico Supercomputing Challenge)

Katie Boot and Sara Hartse

Desert Academy, Santa Fe (New Mexico Supercomputing Challenge)

TITLE: The Spread of the Black Death in London

ABSTRACT: The objective of our project is to model the development of the bubonic plague in London for the duration of the primary outbreak in 1347 that lasted into 1350. We are applying epidemiology to the pandemic and analyzing the consequence it had on general social classes, for example the peasant’s mortality rate versus that of the nobles and higher classes.

We chose this topic because we are interested in epidemiology, and wish to know how and why past societies were affected by circumstances that can be encountered today. We are also curious about the spread of the bubonic plague in past communities versus its spread in modern communities. If we can accurately replicate the Black Death, we could continue with the project and model a version of the Black Death in the modern-day London community. This would enable us to compare the spread of the plague in modern times to that of the past.

While our final model does not reflect the degree of complexity we originally intended, it takes into account the chances of infection, recovery and death, the geometry of 14th century London and the fact that the disease was initially brought to London by ships. We were able to determine model parameters, such as probability of recovery and the infection rate, that provide model results which correspond to historical data to a relatively high degree. This information will allow us to continue to use this model and add more elements in the future.

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